Housing Predictor Poll Results 2009

Survey Says Congress Will Fail in Economic Crisis

beautiful sunsetAn overwhelming majority of Americans believe Congress and other government policymakers will fail in their efforts to get the U.S. economy straightened out and halt the foreclosure epidemic, according to a new Predictor Poll.

The online survey was completed Sunday and it found that 81% of those polled do not feel that Congress will be able to get control of the foreclosure epidemic, which was first forecasted by Housing Predictor in 2006. The foreclosure crisis is at the heart of the nation’s recessionary economy.

The poll clearly shows that Americans have lost faith in Congress to solve the nation’s # 1 problem. More than 5-million homes have been foreclosed since the crisis started, and each foreclosure costs the U.S. economy an average of $225,000. The direct cost of foreclosures may also be measured in blighted neighborhoods in thousands of cities across the country. There are more than 19-million vacant homes in the U.S. today.

The repeal of the Glass-Seagal Act, which was instituted by Congress during the Great Depression to protect the nation’s economy from financial shocks, took lobbyists nearly a quarter century to have abolished. The move opened the flood gate for a series of complicated financial instruments to be developed that would go without regulatory controls and eventually damage the U.S. economy to the point where bankers had to be bailed-out by the government.

Will Congress and other U.S. government policymakers be able to halt the foreclosure epidemic to aid the economic recovery?

Yes   –   19% No   –   81%

Survey Demonstrates Optimism in Housing

Homeowners and renters are still mobile in their view of the housing market with more than 2 out of 3 planning to move within the next nine years, according to the latest Predictor Poll. The online survey was completed Monday.

Some 32% of those surveyed said they are planning a move within the next year, while another 18% said they intend to move in the next three years. An additional 18% surveyed said they plan on moving in four to nine years. The survey demonstrates optimism about the housing market, despite the un-winding of the financial crisis and lower real estate prices in almost all areas of the country.

Homeowners and renters surveyed feel very similar to trends before the financial crisis in housing when the average period of homeownership was seven years. The housing crash has sent home prices down at least an average of 30% in the least affected areas of the country and as much as 75% on individual homes in the worst affected markets. The epidemic of foreclosures is forecast to pull prices down further in the worst impacted markets.

How long do you plan on living in your present home?

Less than 1 year   –   32% Two to 3 years   –   18% Four to 9 years   –   18% Ten to 15 years   –   11% More than 15 years   –   20%

Homeowners Will Walk from Mortgages

Nearly 1 in 3 homeowners will walk away from their mortgages if housing prices continue to fall, according to a new survey by Housing Predictor.

Findings to the online Predictor Poll were similar to a survey taken in March. Some 32% said they would walk away from their home if housing prices keep falling. The latest survey was completed Oct. 11th. A large majority who took part in the poll or 68% said they would not walk from their mortgages.

In March 36% said they would walk from their mortgages, demonstrating major changes in the way Americans feel about bankers in response to the financial crisis. Bankers and other special interest groups contributed $354-billion to Congressional campaigns during the real estate boom. Homeowners’ have historically felt responsible to fulfill their contractual agreements to pay mortgages back. But a new trend is developing in light of widespread criticisms of banking practices.

Bankers working in conjunction with Wall Street developed new financial instruments to trade securities on Wall Street to produce a record volume of home mortgages throwing the national economy into at least the worst recession since the Great Depression. The crisis has resulted in the worst foreclosure epidemic in U.S. history.

If your home’s value keeps falling will you walk away from your mortgage?

Yes   –   32% No   –   68%

Consumers Lack Confidence in Housing Market

Despite increasing home sales in many areas of the country, a large majority surveyed still lack confidence in the housing market recovering, the latest Predictor Poll has found.

The survey shows that despite government efforts to improve the housing market with multi-billion dollar bail-outs and incentives for first time home buyers, consumers still believe there’s not enough being done to help real estate recover. The survey was conducted over a three week period online, ending September 21st.

Some 64% of those polled said they are not feeling better about the state of the U.S. housing market, which has experienced near all-time deflation in the over-whelming majority of the nation. Slightly more than 1 out of 3 respondents said they are feeling better about the market.

The decline in home prices is attributed to the record volume of foreclosures, which just hit 4.3-million homes nationwide since the epidemic started more than two years ago. Banks and mortgage servicing companies have held back more than another 3-million properties from the marketplace to stimulate sales activity.

Sales of bargain priced homes have resulted as consumers await greater government action to at least slow the epidemic of foreclosures, which are hurting the overall national economy.

It’s been more than two years that housing markets have been declining, but home sales are up in many areas of the country.

Are you feeling better about the state of the housing market?

Yes   –   36% No   –   64%

Majority Want Home Buyers Extension

A large majority want the first time home buyers tax credit extended and broadened to include all home buyers, according to the latest Predictor poll.

The survey found that 60% of all respondents favor an extension of the tax credit, adopted by Congress in efforts to re-energize the nation’s ailing housing market, which has seen home values fall at unprecedented rates in many of the nation’s markets. Consumers clearly see the tax credit as working to help ailing markets and prompt home prices to rise.

The remaining 40% said they do not want the tax incentive to be extended beyond the November 30th deadline for first time home buyers, despite more than 4-million homes being foreclosed in the worst foreclosure epidemic in U.S. history. At least another 6- million homes are forecast to be foreclosed through 2012.

Should the federal government’s first time home buyers tax credit program be extended and include all home buyers?

Yes   –   60% No   –   40%

Survey Says Market Will Fizzle

The overwhelming majority surveyed say reviving home sales will fizzle once the first time home buyers federal tax credit expires, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll.

The survey, conducted online over a three week period, found that 77% of respondents say home sales will slow once the federal government’s $8,000 first time tax credit expires on December 1st. Only 23%, which is less than 1 out of 4 survey takers said the market would continue a rebound.

The collapse of the housing market was triggered by record numbers of foreclosures, which have now topped more than 4-million units nationwide. Renewed interest in home buying was prompted by the tax credit coupled with lower home prices. The tax credit may be extended by Congress when lawmakers reconvene in the fall.

Will improving home sales continue or fizzle once the first time home buyers $8,000 federal tax credit expires December 1, 2009?

Improve   –   23% Fizzle   –   77%

To see poll previous results from 2009 click here.

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